By Ryan Clark | February 17, 2009
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, a statistician who gained a great deal of notoriety during the 2008 US Presidential election, has made some bold predictions for Sunday's Academy Awards. Silver uses statistical software and a process called logistic regression to make his predictions. He built a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history and used data such as movie genre, MPAA classification, release date, box office revenues and whether the film won any other awards to make his predictions. So, how do things look for Mickey Rourke and Marissa Tomei, nominated for Best Lead Actor and Best Supporting Actress for their roles in "The Wrestler?" Marissa Tomei can probably save her time writing an acceptance speech, as Silver gives her only a 1.7% chance of winning Best Supporting Actress. However, Silver predicts Mickey Rourke has a 71.1% chance of winning Best Lead Actor. After Rourke, the next most likely nominee to win is Sean Penn ("Milk") the with only 19%. Silver writes, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke have split the two awards that traditionally predict success in this category, with Penn winning Screen Actors Guild and Rourke the Golden Globe. But Rourke has an additional advantage: If an actor, like Penn, has been nominated several times without nabbing a statue, his odds of winning increase. Once he does win, odds go way down. Penn won Best Actor five years ago for Mystic River.
TMZ.com reports that former UFC fighter Kimo Leopoldo was arrested by police for drug possession in Tustin, California on Monday afternoon after authorities spotted the ex-fighter wearing a Long Beach Police Department jumpsuit complete with patches and a badge. The officers then searched Kimo's car, where they claim to have found "a small amount of what is believed to be meth." Kimo, who famously lost to Royce Gracie in UFC 3, was charged with possession of a controlled substance and is still in police custody. Cops say there will also be an investigation into where the 41-year-old got his hands on the LBPD gear.
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