Dave Meltzer Analyzes WWE's Upcoming Network Changes

September 2024 is set to be one of the most interesting months in WWE's recent history, as all three of their flagship shows, "WWE Raw," "WWE SmackDown," and "WWE NXT," will enter a period of transition. For "SmackDown" and "NXT," they will be wrapping up their time on their current networks, as "SmackDown" will leave FOX for USA, while "NXT" will leave USA for The CW. As for "Raw," that show will remain on USA until the end of the year, as the company begins readying fans for 'Raw's big move to Netflix in 2025.

In the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, Dave Meltzer broke down what fans should expect from WWE TV in the next few months, due to all of these big changes. To start, Meltzer predicts a lot of major angles and matches will be built and promoted on the September 6 "SmackDown," the blue brand's final night on FOX, as well "NXT's" final night on USA, which will be September 24.

One thing that will most certainly change is the TV ratings. "SmackDown" has remained for the most part above two million viewers while they've been on FOX, but Meltzer stated that those numbers will artificially fall. What he means is that the ratings will drop more due to the fact that the show is going from network to cable television, rather than fans tuning out due to lack of interest. Where "SmackDown" will settle ratings wise will become a little more clear by October in Meltzer's eyes. He also claims "Raw's" ratings will be hampered until the move to Netflix, due to consistently running against NFL football.

When 2025 does roll around, the days of "Raw" getting a Nielsen rating will be over, as the move to Netflix will only see a worldwide rating given to the show, rather than what fans have been used to for the past 31 years. Meltzer noted that those numbers will be extremely misleading due to the fact that Netflix is in almost four times as many homes, meaning that WWE will almost be able to say any number they want and pass it off as how many people are actually watching. For example, if 278 million people have a Netflix account, WWE could theoretically say that 278 million people were able to watch "Raw."

"NXT" will be the most interesting move according to Meltzer, as the show is moving from cable to network television, but The CW is not only a less popular channel than USA, it's only in a fraction more homes domestically (71.25 million for The CW compared to 68 million for USA as of June 2024). Meltzer believes that the ratings will be a shot in the dark as to whether they will go up or down, and much like "SmackDown," will take until October to see what the new pattern will be.

That being said, Meltzer did note that the two live arena shows on October 1 (the debut on The CW in Chicago) and October 8 (going head-to-head with "AEW Dynamite" in St. Louis) will get big numbers, with The CW debut show looking poised to beat "Dynamite" that week thanks to the appearance of CM Punk. Meltzer believes that this could be a regular thing in regards to beating "Dynamite," but it will be a little while before that may become a regular occurrence.