Dave Meltzer Breaks Down Possible AEW Fallout Amid Paramount-WBD Acquisition

The media landscape in the United States looks to be going through a major change in the near future as the bidding war to acquire AEW's broadcasting partner Warner Brothers Discovery seems to have been won by Paramount. Originally, Netflix had submitted an offer and details of how things would be broken down had been reported, but Paramount's offer was one that Netflix simply couldn't match and baring any federal regulatory problems, Paramount will officially acquire WBD later this year.

In the latest edition of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, Dave Meltzer assessed what the Paramount/WBD deal means for AEW given that the company has a rights deal with WBD that will last until the end of 2027 at the earliest, and the fact that WBD owns a small stake of the company. Meltzer explained that both Paramount and Netflix would have posed problems for AEW, but the biggest plus point is that Paramount is picking up the television stations. This means that all of AEW's assets will be kept together instead of broken up, which would have happened if the Netflix deal went through, making AEW more valuable in theory.

However, the perception of AEW will be very important as Paramount will be forced to cut back on expenses due to the overwhelming amount of debt attached to the deal, and the fact that several jobs would be cut. AEW would need to be viewed as a valuable sports/entertainment program that is cheaper than something like the UFC and can produce more programming than a sport like boxing, it would be a real help. With that said, much like the AOL/Time Warner merger that led to the demise of WCW in 2001, if the person making the big decisions in regards to TV and streaming doesn't see wrestling as an important property and if AEW isn't strong from a fans perspective, the company could be in danger.

With Paramount now on the verge of acquiring WBD, it means that Paramount could potentially want a part of the wrestling business. Meltzer noted that through the purchase, Paramount would become a part owner of AEW thanks to WBD's current stake in the company. However, AEW would still be able to sell its media rights, which will be stronger now that television and streaming are being kept together, to the highest bidder when the current deal expire. Paramount doesn't have a wrestling component right now, with the closest thing to that being the deal with the UFC, but Meltzer believes that this could be Paramount's way of getting in the business without having to pay WWE prices.

Meltzer also mentioned other green flags for the Paramount deal include AEW potentially getting more exposure thanks to having a business connection to a network. HBO MAX will want to be kept separate from Paramount+, but that wouldn't phase AEW as HBO MAX currently gets a cut of the pay-per-views buys on the service. AEW is also not as valuable a company like the UFC or a sport like boxing, meaning that they far more valuable to them from a financial perspective than the UFC.

However, there are a lot of red flags relating to this deal, with the main one being the amount of debt it's taking to get this deal over the line to the point where Meltzer doesn't believe this deal makes any financial sense. Due to the amount of cuts Paramount will have to make, with AEW not being as valuable as boxing or the UFC, the company might want to keep the major assets in the portfolio and get rid of something like AEW. With the television stations likely to be gutted over time, if AEW only stays on HBO MAX which could potentially merged with Paramount+ it would cut the amount of homes that have weekly access to AEW by two-thirds.

Meltzer rounded off by stating that while it makes no sense for Paramount to cut AEW from the portfolio, both on television and pay-per-view, the TKO relationship with Paramount could lead to a fight for AEW to keep its place, which could also open up an antitrust case possiblity 

The natural reaction from people in relation to this deal has been one of negativity due to one company basically owning the majority of Hollywood, something that movie fans have been very worried about. But when it comes to AEW, it seems a bit early for people to worrying about the sky falling down on the company.

One thing I have always believed is no matter what happens with Paramount, WBD, Netflix, or anything to do with a potential purchase of a media conglomerate, AEW will probably be fine. Tony Khan and the Khan family is a lot more wealthy than people think, and Tony is a man who is more than happy to spend his money as freely as he wants. What I'm getting at here is that no matter what happens with this current deal, in the long-run, AEW will continue for as long as Tony Khan wants it to. AEW is, at its core, a passion project for Tony, meaning that if he wants to own a wrestling company, he will own a wrestling company.

Sure, that might mean that if things do go south for AEW when it comes to negotiations in 2027, or 2028 if the extra year option is exercised on the current deal, it won't operate on the same level as it has been since 2019. Think of how TNA started to go downhill in the 2010s after that company lost its deal with Spike TV, everyone thought that would be the end but TNA clawed its way back and is now in the best position its ever been. That could be a similar fate for AEW if the Paramount deal doesn't work in its favor. The weekly programming might migrate to YouTube, a bigger deal with Amazon Prime might be created, or HonorClub might be turned into a full-blown AEW streaming service, but whatever the result may be, AEW will still exist in some capacity.

Will the current product change at all? Probably not. The recent string of anti-ICE chants might not go down well when the company is now owned by a good friend of Donald Trump, but given how a large number of Meltzer's findings point to AEW using their lack of worth compared to something like the UFC, the company could use that as an advantage. AEW can operate as normal and only ever come under intense scrutiny if something breaks out of the wrestling circle like how the Brody King/MJF match did at the start of February. 

I could be incredibly naïve with my thinking on the future of AEW, but we live in a world where it's incredibly easy to create content and AEW is now a firmly established brand known the world over. It won't just disappear overnight, not with the financial backing from the Khan family and the number of wrestlers that have fought to keep the company going over the past seven years. AEW will be fine...probably.