Dave Meltzer Breaks Down Backstage Politics Of AEW Presence At NJPW Wrestle Kingdom

New Japan Pro Wrestling's biggest event of the year, NJPW Wrestle Kingdom 21, is rapidly approaching as the Tokyo Dome awaits on January 4 for everyone on the roster. However, the upcoming event won't just feature NJPW performers as a number of top AEW talents are making the trip to Tokyo in January as well, with Dave Meltzer breaking down the politics of how the night might play out in the latest edition of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter.

The current NJPW Wrestle Kingdom 21 card will see Kenny Omega challenge for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship against Yota Tsuji, Gabe Kidd defend the IWGP Global Heavyweight Championship against Yuya Uemura, and the team of Mistico and a mystery partner facing Taiji Ishimori and Robbie X, and Kosei Fujita and Robbie Eagles in a three way match for the IWGP Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Championships. Meanwhile in the non-title matches, Jon Moxley will face Shingo Takagi, MJF will go one-on-one with Ryohei Oiwa, and current AEW World Champion Will Ospreay will face off with Callum Newman.

With all those matches in mind, Meltzer believes that to keep all parties happy, each company should get three wins each so that the partnership can remain strong on both sides. For NJPW, Meltzer can see Mistico and his mystery partner not winning quite easily, and Uemura defeating Kidd for two easy wins. For AEW, given that he is putting his "Real" AEW World Championship on the line, Meltzer can see MJF beating Oiwa, and if Ospreay is still the actual AEW World Champion by Wrestle Kingdom, he has to beat Newman as that would complicate things stateside.

For the final two bouts, Takagi and Moxley could go either way according to Meltzer as Takagi has taken losses to people below him on the card multiple times, while Moxley will put someone over if the business is right, and for Meltzer the result of this bout could dictate what happens in the main event. 

He can see Tsuji retaining his crown and vanquishing a top foreign star like Omega, especially since Wrestle Kingdom will be broadcast on network television in Japan which would cement Tsuji as the top domestic star in the country. However, there would be some positives for an Omega win as well as he is the more well known star, giving NJPW a boost in business for the first portion of 2027, and it would give Tsuji even more of a reason to go back for the title later in the year, which would also do great business.

Meltzer explained that the route of having Omega beat Tsuji would be the same story NJPW told with Hiroshi Tanahashi 18 years ago when he lost to Keiji Mutoh the first time around, only to win the rematch and be seen as the undisputed new top babyface in NJPW. Speaking of Tanahashi, Meltzer noted that the company isn't looking to replicate the ticket sales for Tanahashi's retirement at Wrestle Kingdom 20 in January 2026, which ended up being the highest attended Tokyo Dome event for NJPW since 1998. However, the company does want to surpass the 25,000 mark as Wrestle Kingdom 19 in 2025 drew just over 24,000 people, and Meltzer can see that happening given the extra star power provided by AEW.

The only thing that could change the politics of the event is if more AEW stars are added to the show, in particular Adam Copeland and Mercedes Mone, who have both publicly stated that they want to wrestle at the Tokyo Dome. Mone did in 2025 against Mina Shirakawa at the Wrestle Dynasty event, but Copeland has yet to work there and has the venue on his bucket list he wants to tick off before retiring in 2027. With that said, Meltzer believes that if either Copeland or Mone were on the show, they would have been announced at the recent Power Struggle event at November 3.