AEW Double Or Nothing 2026: Draws & Duds

We are mere days away from AEW Double or Nothing 2026, a card that features no fewer than five championship matches, three Owen Hart Cup tournament matches, and one Stadium Stampede! Also showcased will be all manner of stipulation bouts — Kyle O'Reilly and Jon Moxley will wrestle without a time limit, FTR and CNC (Adam Copeland and Christian Cage) will wrestle until one team says "I quit," and MJF will lose his hair if he fails to recapture the AEW World Championship. In other words, there's a lot going on this Sunday in New York City.

But which matches make us want to fork over the money to watch the show, and which ones make us want to save up for something else? That's the question the WINC crew are here to answer. These are Wrestling Inc.'s biggest draws and biggest duds for AEW Double or Nothing 2026!

AEW is often criticized for how it handles its women's division, and at least there are, as of right now, six women competing at Double or Nothing. However, adding multiple women to one match instead of adding more women's matches overall to a show is certainly a choice. Since Thekla won the AEW Women's World Championship in February from Kris Statlander, she hasn't had too many strong storylines with any other challengers but Statlander, initially, and calling that "strong" may be a stretch to some.

At Double or Nothing, Thekla is set to take on three former champions, including Statlander, and there's no strong story behind any of them. Outside of Stat, Hikaru Shida, and Jamie Hayter all being former champs, it all feels very thrown together, with that one fact the only shred of cohesion.

Thekla has already faced both Statlander and Hayter for the gold on AEW pay-per-views. Shida should have been built up upon her return to challenge Thekla one-on-one to give the title scene a fresher feel. However, she's been mostly teaming with Statlander in an almost odd-couple pairing where the women have a lot of tension and it's kind of unclear at times whether Shida is a heel or not. But, even heel-vs-heel for Double or Nothing would feel new and fresh compared to a four-way title match, where the Sisters of Sin will likely get involved.

One would think AEW would count on its "Sickos" to remember Shida despite her prolonged absence, around 16 months, and in the last month since her return on April 2 to answer Willow Nightingale's TBS Championship open challenge, she could have easily been built up as a challenger to Thekla. Ever since "Timeless" Toni Storm was put on the shelf back in March, it feels like the AEW women's division hasn't recovered at the top, and Shida's return could have been used to attempt to correct that.

With no TBS Championship match on the show and Divine Dominion yet to be booked in a defense as of this writing, AEW is still lacking when it comes to women's matches at Double or Nothing. Thankfully, we've gotten to the point where we can complain about how the women's matches are being booked, at least, rather than complaining they aren't booked at all, but there is still quite a bit of room for improvement on AEW's part.

Written by Daisy Ruth

Konosuke Takeshita finally gets his opportunity at Kazuchika Okada for the International Championship in the battle of the Don Callis Family at Double or Nothing. It will be just the second time that the former IWGP Heavyweight Champions clash one-on-one, with their maiden clash coming in the Continental Classic semi-finals at Worlds End. 

Okada won that bout to advance to the final, where he would eventually lose the Continental title to Jon Moxley, making use of a screwdriver that had been stowed away for Kyle Fletcher. This time will be free of the background noise of brackets and double duty, even if it will almost certainly feature some form of shenanigans from Callis or another member of his family.

What makes this bout so interesting is exactly that; it's not just a title match, it's a clash between generational Japanese exports, and a clash between leading members of the faction they're under. There's a question of loyalty from every member of the group including Callis himself. Okada has been the more recent favorite but he has been seen taking liberties with everyone when it comes to ensuring he stays at the top, Takeshita is the longest tenured member of the group having been there at its formation. 

This weekend should see which way the pendulum truly swings. Does Takeshita get his crowning moment and finally succeed "The Rainmaker" as the top guy? Or does Okada continue his reign as both International Champion and star boy of the DCF? 

Those questions will be answered with what can safely be called an instant classic in advance. It takes a great deal of effort from both guys to produce anything less than a brilliant match, and sticking them in the ring and expecting unbridled brilliance is basic arithmetic.

Written by Max Everett

FTR will be defending their World Tag Team titles against Christian Cage and Adam Copeland in not just a rematch from their Dynasty bout, but an I Quit match with the suggestion that it's make or break for the veteran challengers. 

Copeland said when he made the challenge for the rematch that, considering Dax Harwood and Cash Wheeler would reject, he would sweeten the deal by promising that this will be his and Cage's last attempt alongside one another. And as the third match in their saga, shared 1-1 apiece, things will only end once either side has yielded. So there is the promise of an ending and that it will likely come in a bloody brutal battle. But it doesn't change the fact that of all the matches on the card, this one is the most likely to overstay its welcome. 

FTR are the kings of such matches, long and indulgent bouts that have all the makings of an instant classic without any of the substance. There will be Spears, Killswitches, Shatter Machines, piledrivers, chairs, tables, and all manner of things that AEW is known to feature on a weekly basis. It will be north of 20 minutes. 

The only aspect that's even remotely in flux is the winner and the loser, even if it does seem super likely that Cage and Cope will have their crowning moment. But even then, if FTR wins there is a strong sense of, "Okay, but what could possibly come next," and if Cope and Cage win there still remains the question but just deferred a few weeks. 

This is a match that never really needed the tag titles and was pushed back so that it could feasibly be done with the titles; now there's less of a desire to see Cope and Cage facing FTR. This feels like an "Finally" moment rather than a "I've been looking forward to this" moment. Which is really a shame, because a few years ago there was no way this would have been even close to being classified a Dud. It's just too little, too late.

Written by Max Everett

There are plenty of matches that could easily be considered draws on one of AEW's biggest pay-per-views of the year, and the AEW World Championship match pitting Darby Allin against MJF in a hair-vs-title match is one. While the outcome of this match seems pretty obvious, as MJF isn't likely to lose the hair he paid for (and suffered for, I'd imagine, as hair transplants don't exactly look pleasant) while he's also dabbling in Hollywood, just the fact that he could lose it makes it intriguing and fun. It's not just a rematch now, there are stakes, and they felt necessary for this match that feels like it has a predictable outcome.

Since winning the title from MJF in a squash match on the April 15 edition of "Dynamite," Allin has been on a tear, successfully defending the gold on every episode of "Dynamite," plus a few "Collision" episodes, since landing multiple coffin drops on the now-former champion. From Brody King, to Tommaso Ciampa, Konosuke Takeshita, and more, Allin has defeated them all in impressive, crowd-pleasing matches. All of those bouts have been at least 15 minutes in length, much longer than the 2:17 it took for him to beat MJF, and now, MJF is out for blood.

While it may not be the best-ever main event match of Double or Nothing, it's going to be a hard-hitting one. While it's not advertised, as of this moment, as having any kind of hardcore stipulation, there's no real doubt that MJF and Allin will spend a lot of time outside of the ring, to the delight of the sicko crowd. MJF is going to do everything he can to not only win, but to keep Allin down so he can't hit any coffin drops or pull out anything else from his arsenal of crazy moves.

After Allin has had so many longer, consecutive defenses against great opponents, it's possible he runs out of gas toward the end of this match, and it will be exciting to see the crowd behind him in attempts to help rally him to victory. It certainly seems like MJF is walking away as a three-time AEW World Champion, and if that's the case, Allin can be proud of himself for what he accomplished in such a short time. The match is a draw for fans of MJF, fans of Allin, and all the AEW sickos, especially those hoping "The Devil" loses his hair in dramatic fashion.

Written by Daisy Ruth