AEW Double Or Nothing 2024 Predictions: Wrestling Inc. Picks The Winners
This Sunday, All Elite Wrestling returns to Las Vegas for the sixth annual Double or Nothing pay-per-view, and that means it's time for the Wrestling Inc. staff to roll the dice. The event is currently slated for 11 total matches, though the Buy In match between Thunder Rosa and Deonna Purrazzo was announced too late to be included in our poll.
AEW PPVs are typically harder to pick than WWE PLEs, but this round of picks is unprecedented in that features not just one, but TWO matches that split us completely down the middle. That'll certainly play havoc with our overall record (which currently sits at 47-5 for the year after we went 4-1 at WWE King and Queen of the Ring), but we're willing to bet that the other matches all go our way! And to be fair, large portions of the card look pretty easy to call, including two matches that got unanimous votes and two more that came close. It's actually a pretty nice mix of predictable and unpredictable, and while we're hoping both types of contests are entertaining, mostly we just want to be right!
On that note, let's get to the picks!
Unified Trios Championship: Bang Bang Gang (56%)
Double or Nothing will see the Bang Bang Gang trio of Jay White, Austin, and Colten Gunn making just their second defense of the Unified Trios Tag Team Championship, having added the AEW trios belts to their existing reign as ROH Six-Man Tag Team Champions at Dynasty. They will face former Trios Champions Death Triangle in Vegas, in what one would expect to be a cementing of their reign — but that outcome is far from certain. The poll put to our Wrestling Inc. team reflects that a slim 56% majority back "Switchblade" and company to win, which also means 44% found reason to believe Death Triangle would become two-time champions.
Death Triangle dropped the titles back to The Elite in the culmination of their best-of-seven series against one another, and have since pursued singles goals while recovering from a plethora of injuries. Fenix upset Jon Moxley late last year to win the International title, dropping it to Orange Cassidy in similarly surprising fashion as he was sidelined. PAC and Penta have continued to team occasionally during his absence, though PAC went it alone to unsuccessfully challenge Kazuchika Okada for the Continental Championship at Dynasty last month. They will hope to have better success as a trio this weekend, reuniting during this week's "AEW Dynamite" to lay down their challenge to White and the Gunns following their mauling of PAC during last week's "AEW Collision."
Written by Max Everett
FTW Championship: Chris Jericho (75%)
While some of the Double or Nothing card is quite unpredictable, it seems likely that Chris Jericho will walk away from Sunday's three-way match holding onto the FTW Championship. The veteran performer has been emphasizing his new "Learning Tree" gimmick as of late, and even those who dislike the character must admit that it's rarely a good idea to cut a new gimmick down at the knees when it's just getting started.
On top of that, the inclusion of Katsuyori Shibata in the match means there is someone else to take the pin while the Jericho-HOOK feud continues. Jericho likely won't have a lengthy run with the FTW Championship, with HOOK being the odds-on favorite to eventually win it back, but Sunday's match seems to have been set up to give Jericho a clear way to win. Though we may not all like it, 75% of the Wrestling INC. staff agrees that Jericho's FTW Championship run will continue for now. Appropriately, HOOK and Shibata split the remaining vote, earning 12.5% each.
The storyline is one of the most divisive in AEW right now, with Jericho leaning into the negative reactions he's been receiving from crowds as of late. Despite his heel turn, the feud hasn't been received well, with some fans criticizing the pace of Jericho's stories while others believe Hook isn't a believable opponent for the veteran. Nonetheless, the storyline seems poised to continue into June.
Written by Nick Miller
Orange Cassidy vs. Trent Beretta: Even (50%)
After years of being an ironic Twitter presence and a background character in the saga of Orange Cassidy's rise to fame, Trent Beretta is finally trying to make a name for himself, revealing a new mean streak which has already led to him ending his best friend Chuck Taylor's career in a Parking Lot Brawl. Now Beretta is set to face Orange Cassidy in a straight wrestling match, and it would certainly be an odd choice to have him choke on his first big PPV match as a heel — though admittedly, it would also be a very "Trent" thing to do.
Maybe that's why the Wrestling Inc. staff is entirely divided on this match, with 50% believing that Trent will find a way to wrestle out of Cassidy's shadow, while the other 50% believe in Cassidy's established stardom. Whether he adheres to the "straight wrestling" code of which Beretta has asked, or if he tries to beat his former best friend, could also have an impact on the result.
The fact that Cassidy commands half the vote speaks to his popularity, as well as the question of Don Callis looming over the feud. The lecherous and treacherous Callis is focused on Orange Cassidy as of late, but it's a fool's errand to trust that Callis's loyalty will extend to Double or Nothing. He could turncoat and take Trent under his wing, or his help could simply be a distraction for Cassidy. Either way, it is more likely than not that the Callis Family patriarch will play a role in the outcome of the match.
Written by Ross Berman
International Championship: Will Ospreay (100%)
In every single one of our eyes here at WINC, there is no world in where "The Aerial Assassin" Will Ospreay doesn't win the AEW International Championship from Roderick Strong, as a full 100% of us believe he's walking away with the title. There's no doubt that Ospreay deserves gold going in to the summer months, especially with All In coming up at Wembley Stadium in London at the end of August. This is also his first championship shot in the company since signing and announcing he was officially full-time with AEW after finishing up his NJPW obligations at the end of February.
Strong may have the rest of the Undisputed Kingdom to back him up, but even they are no match for Ospreay and the hype behind him, so we're not predicting shenanigans to get in his way of a victory. The way Ospreay officially got his shot at Strong was a bit strange, with a seemingly thrown-together Casino Gauntlet match during the Homecoming special of "AEW Dynamite" from Jacksonville on April 24. Ospreay entered the bout fresh off a dream match victory over Bryan Danielson at Dynasty, and the momentum kept him going over the seven other men vying for a shot at Strong's championship. "The Aerial Assassin" now also has a bone to pick with Strong personally after Wednesday's episode of "Dynamite," when the Undisputed Kingdom made him bleed during a post-match beatdown after Strong and Trent Beretta defeated Ospreay and Orange Cassidy in tag team action.
Ospreay deserves gold in AEW, and it's surprising to us that it's taken this long for him to get a shot at a title. It may not be the AEW World Championship (yet), but it's a great place for him to start, and all of us here at WINC believe he's walking out of Las Vegas victorious on Sunday.
Written by Daisy Ruth
Women's World Championship: Toni Storm (94%)
The WINC staff is pretty well sold on Toni Storm's work in AEW since she time-warped into the 1920s, turning her portion of our screens black and white and capturing our hearts in the process. Not only is Toni "Timeless," but she's also just about irreplaceable on the AEW roster, as it could be easily argued that she's their most valuable champion at the moment. Even AEW detractors will tell you that Storm's segments have been must-watch since August 2023, after she lost the AEW Women's World Championship to Hikaru Shida at "Dynamite 200."
In the time since, Storm has added Mariah May as her right-hand woman and Luther as her butler, while recapturing her title at Full Gear and turning the dial up on the character work for all of 2024. (Wendi Richter, just when are you going to answer the bell anyway?) In that same span, and actually for an entirety of 14 months, Serena Deeb has been away, unfortunately having to deal with the real-life emergency of a series of seizures that she had to overcome. She returned, finally, in January, and then earned her shot at Storm's title when the champion threw in the towel on behalf of May earlier this month on "Dynamite."
Though we did have 6% of our staff cast their votes for Deeb (props for the conviction!) this certainly seems like one of those "put-the-champ-in-with-a-good-hand-for-a-great-match" title showcases as opposed to a legitimate threat for Storm. Deeb is as good as they come, technically, but the chances of her walking away with Storm's title at the height of the champion's popularity seems miniscule, especially when you consider that, outside of the match against May to earn the shot, her victories since making her way back are against the likes of Robyn Renegade, Queen Aminata, Lady Frost, Trish Adora, and Anna Jay — all due respect, of course, but not exactly a murderer's row of contenders. In the vein of AJ Styles vs. Cody Rhodes at WWE's Backlash earlier this month, we expect a great match between two excellent competitors, but we don't expect a title swap in this one.
Written by Jon Jordan
Barbed Wire Steel Cage Match for TNT Championship: Adam Copeland (62.5%)
Adam Copeland and Malakai Black look to finally settle their differences inside a Barbed Wire Steel Cage this weekend at Double or Nothing. It's been a long, simmering build to this bout since Malakai Black first glanced at the TNT Champion, with weeks of lights-out ambushes, mind games and verbal jibes going either way. Black even pinned Copeland at AEW Dynasty in April to stake his claim for the title, albeit with the help of his signature black mist. But that hasn't done enough to convince the Wrestling Inc. team that Black will win his first AEW singles title, with 62.5% backing Copeland to retain.
Since defeating Christian Cage in an "I Quit" Match to win the title once more, Copeland has made five defenses in 65 days including wins over House of Black members Buddy Matthews and Brody King. Black carries his own significance as the challenger, however, having just one defeat in his 13 one-on-one outings (hat defeat came in 2021 against the current Undisputed WWE Champion Cody Rhodes). He has only ever challenged for a singles title in AEW on one occasion, losing out in a four-way for the International — then named the All-Atlantic — title at Forbidden Door 2022.
Written by Max Everett
IWGP World Heavyweight Championship Eliminator: Even (50%)
As with the match between Trent Beretta and Orange Cassidy, there is a 50-50 split regarding who wins Sunday's match between Konosuke Takeshita and IWGP World Heavyweight Champion Jon Moxley. The confusion makes some sense, as the circumstances around the match are unusual. Rather than being a PPV title match, Takeshita must defeat Moxley to earn a shot at NJPW's top championship. On top of that, Moxley already has a title defense scheduled against EVIL at NJPW Dominion in June. It has been clarified that if Takeshita defeats Moxley, and then EVIL defeats Moxley, Takeshita will get his title shot against the new champion.
All of this, combined with the credibility of both performers, has created a lot of uncertainty around this match. On the one hand, with his next title bout already scheduled, it seems unlikely that Moxley would take a loss. However, if Moxley was going to defeat Takeshita, there's seemingly not much of a reason to make Sunday's bout an Eliminator rather than putting the title up for grabs.
Additionally, Takeshita has already lost matches against both Will Ospreay and Swerve Strickland this year. If he isn't able to overcome Moxley this weekend, it may be time to re-evaluate his status with the Don Callis Family.
Written by Nick Miller
Anarchy In The Arena: The New Elite (94%)
The New Elite has carved a path of destruction on the way to Sunday's Anarchy In The Arena Match, abusing their power to injure friend and foe alike. Their reign of terror has united a motley crew of AEW stars, as Dax Harwood, Cash Wheeler, Bryan Danielson, and Darby Allin will defend AEW's honor against the EVPs (and Okada and Jungle Boy).
While the AEW side has the advantage of the gun-toting, unpredictable Cash Wheeler, who's recently been cleared of weapons charges and is free to brandish blazing steel once again, they also have a disadvantage, as Allin (who replaced an injured Eddie Kingston) was hit by a bus less than a month ago, and while he's cleared for action, he's admittedly not at 100%. Then factor in that the last time Bryan Danielson was in an Anarchy In The Arena match, he suffered a head injury that led to him spending months on the shelf, and it starts to look like FTR might have to fight The Young Bucks, Kazuchika Okada, and Jack Perry all by themselves.
Harwood's one hope might be that other members of the AEW roster are inspired to join the fight and stand up to their power-mad bosses, but much like the students of the June Rebellion in Paris, it is likely that their call to action will fall on deaf ears and the AEW side will be crushed by the New Elite. It's just as likely that the EVPs can turn the AEW locker room against each other, much like they did at the end of this week's "Dynamite."
94% of the Wrestling Inc. staff don't believe AEW has the manpower to fight back.
Written by Ross Berman
TBS Championship: Mercedes Mone (69%)
Double or Nothing is Mercedes Mone's first match in AEW after initially debuting at "AEW Dynamite: Big Business" in Mone's hometown of Boston in March. She's set to go one-on-one with rival Willow Nightingale for the TBS Championship, and 69% of us here at WINC believe it's "The CEO's" time. It may be the former Sasha Bank's first match in over a year due to injury, an almost career-ending injury suffered in a match against Nightingale herself, but the majority of us believe she's winning and walking out of Las Vegas a new champion.
Mone has a bone to pick with Nightingale over the incident in the match in New Japan Pro-Wrestling. The NJPW STRONG Women's Championship was seemingly created with Mone in mind, but during the match for the belt, she suffered a serious ankle injury and an audible had to be called, and Nightingale walked out victorious. As soon as Nightingale captured the TBS Championship from Julia Hart at AEW Dynasty, Mone made her presence known, and told Nightingale and the rest of the wrestling world that she'd be coming for her at Double or Nothing.
While not everyone here at WINC is fully convinced of Mone's victory, and maybe some of us are just holding out hope for a Willow retention, we're predicting "The CEO" will soon be a champion. If not just for the NJPW STRONG match, Nightingale slammed Mone through a table during their contract signing on "Dynamite," something the former "Boss" is not likely to forget or take lightly heading in to Las Vegas. As a result, a nice percentage of our staff are rolling the dice and betting on Mone to win this match.
Written by Daisy Ruth
AEW World Championship: Swerve Strickland (100%)
With an undeniable 100% of the punditry reporting, we don't see Christian Cage dethroning Swerve Strickland AEW World Champion this weekend — but that's no knock on Cage whatsoever, as it's been said time and again that he's been doing some of the best work of his career as the head of The Patriarchy, which is pretty hard to argue against. Instead, the rationale here is that it's just way too soon for a title swap after Strickland captured the belt from Samoa Joe at AEW Dynasty in April.
The way Swerve has been featured on AEW television in the time since can certainly be called into question, but that's neither here nor there, and isn't on him in the slightest. His reign seems to have given way to hype surrounding Mercedes Mone, The Young Bucks' tyrannical takeover amid Jack Perry's return and assault on Tony Khan, and Will Ospreay's rise to prominence, among other things, on "Dynamite" and AEW's other two shows. But to chop his legs out from under him here, this quickly, seems irrational at best, even if the plan may be for him to eventually give way to an Ospreay at, say, All In.
Instead, the expectation here is obviously a great match between two top-tier pros, along with some significant distractions in the form of Cage's Patriarchy allies, and perhaps even The Elite as well, setting the stage for Swerve to become a prime target in their abuse-of-power campaign throughout the summer — after he retains in this one, of course.
Written by Jon Jordan